Hindsight Bias, Explained.
There's this weird thing we do.
You know the one...
I mean, have you ever heard someone say "I've always known he was a liar"? Yes, but only because they overheard his shady phone call yesterday night.
There's a word for this:
Hindsight bias.
Also known as the knew-it-all-along bias, it's the tendency to think an event was predictable when looking back.
Here's another better example;
James and Mary have a fantastic relationship. They are madly in love, and have plans to move in together in few months time - at least that's what James thinks.
One day after work, James receives a message from Mary ‘We need to talk.’ Suddenly, he gets worried. Is everything alright? Does Mary still love him? He did notice some tension between them in the last few weeks. It turns out that Mary isn't so happy with the relationship. She needs a break from James.
He knew it! James tells himself, and then his friends. Now that he looks back at his relationship with Mary, he saw many signs that pointed to trouble: cancelled plans, awkwardness, being ignored by her friends and so forth. He had known it all along and this bad news from Mary was no surprise to him.
This is the hindsight bias at work. An unforeseen break up becomes absolutely foreseeable to James after it takes place.
Why Do We Do This?
If you think about it, maybe it makes sense?
I mean, isn't it easier to believe everything is somewhat predictable? Doesn't it make us feel good? Give us some sense of control?
This bias usually starts with us misremembering events, distorting our memories because we've been presented with new information. The right information. It's easier to remember things we've confirmed to be true. No point wasting the brain's RAM on what's already false.
But this then twists our recollection and retrieval.
Some psychologists believe it's due to conscious but rapid adaptive learning while others say it's subconscious assimilation of the solution/outcome by the brain.
Either way, the game is rigged.
Because the fact remains that our memories are never truly what they seem.
Why it is important and the effects it may cause.
It is important to be aware of the implications it can have in our lives. The overconfidence it often produces can have damaging implications. An essential part of making good decisions in our personal and professional lives is having realistic predictions for the future. The hindsight bias gets in the way by distorting track record we have of our past predictions. This can lead to overly confident future predictions that justify risky decisions with bad outcomes.
Secondly, the bias prevents us from learning from our experiences. If we already feel that we knew something all along, it's unlikely that we will carefully reflect on its outcome, and it will certainly prevent us from understanding how our predictions at the time might have been wrong. Ultimately, this can prevent us from understanding the true nature of an event or identifying issues in how we make predictions.
Lastly it may cause a great feeling of dissapointment and regret. In this case one feels like there is something they could have done to avoid the consequences of the situation and taking all the blame to their brain. You may hear someone say ‘How dumb was I to fall in love with him?’ or ‘I regret going to that event, I knew I was right in the first place.’
But reality is that regret is an illusion.
I've had my fair share of it.
Whether it's passing up a certain career or thinking up a better comeback after the situation has long passed.
But here's my biggest issue with it: victim-blaming.
Maybe, it's true. Maybe you did know the other team would win the match. Maybe you did know that one topic would be in the exam even though your study time started uncertainly. Maybe you did know it would rain on your birthday.
But did you really know, for certain that is?
Regret, in a practical sense, isn't useful. Theoretically, I see the appeal.
Regret is humane and human and we shouldn’t live without it. It is the beacon of empathy and, sometimes, the shove we need to do better.
Avoiding Hindsight Bias
It's one of the many reasons I enjoy journalling, one of my favourite pastimes. It's always so cool to look through a past thought process.
It helps me to avoid this bias as often as I can.
I totally recommend a journal to help you counter this bias. Journalling helps one create a record of decision making process, allowing you to revisit the reasons you came to certain conclusions. It allows you to get a better idea of what you thought would have happened at the time of making the decision. As well as prevents second guessing and help you make better decisions in the future.
So, here's my note to self:
The fact is that you didn't know. You couldn't have. Don't beat yourself up for it.
Take the lesson. Take accountability. Make amends. And keep it moving.
I hope you found this useful, have a great day and remember to #Stay_Mentally_Fit
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